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Bearish on Bitcoin? Prove it.

Bearish on Bitcoin? Prove it.

Chris Campbell

Posted September 27, 2023

Chris Campbell

“Should I short Bitcoin? How do I do it?”

It was around 8PM when I got the text. An unfamiliar number.

I had a flashback to 2018.

That was when everyone I knew -- my real estate agent included -- texted me: “Should I buy Bitcoin? How do I do it?”

Bitcoin at the time was hitting its all-time high.

This time it was from an old acquaintance.

What did I text back, you ask? The same thing I told everyone in 2018.

I’ll tell you in a moment. 

First, let me show you what inspired the text.

Taleb Hates Bitcoin?

The guy who texted me saw an interview with Nassim Taleb -- who, to his surprise, was mercilessly bearish on Bitcoin. 

He remembered Taleb as originally supportive of Bitcoin.

In fact, in 2018 Taleb wrote the foreword of the most popular Bitcoin book ever written -- The Bitcoin Standard -- authored by Saifedean Ammous.

But then, COVID hit.

In 2020, Taleb had a wildly public falling out with Ammous. They argued on Twitter -- as it was known back then -- about the global approach to COVID-19.

It turned personal quickly.

Immediately after, Taleb turned on Bitcoin, pulling a complete 180.

ALC

That’s the history.

And, to Taleb’s credit, he put his money where his mouth is. 

ALC

True to his philosophy:

“Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.”

Bearish on Bitcoin? Prove it.

Now, back to my old friend…

There’s a lot of bearish talk on Bitcoin these days.

Many of my friends are bearish. (As bearish as they were bullish at the top, mind you.)

I just give them the facts.

Right now, here’s what we see…

The Bitcoin halving, an event where the reward for miners is halved, is approaching. Prior to this event, 27,000 BTC are released into the market monthly. After it, the supply will be reduced to 13,500 per month.

→ Since May, Bitcoin has been fleeing from exchanges. Right now, there are about 1.8 million Bitcoins sitting on exchanges, a six-year low. Normally, an outflow of coins from exchanges signals the expectation of higher prices. Outflow is about 45,000 Bitcoin per day.

A
<p><strong>→ Over the past 30 days, different groups have shown varying Bitcoin holding trends.</strong> Small holders (1-20 Bitcoin) have increased their holdings significantly, while Whales and Super Whales have reduced their stock. <strong>Mixed signals. </strong></p>
<p>→ <strong>The US government owns 205,000 Bitcoin. </strong>It’s unclear what they’re going to do with them.</p>
<p>→ <strong>Financial giants like Blackrock are warming up to Bitcoin and crypto. </strong>BlackRock, Vanguard, and Fidelity have expressed interest in joint-custody crypto exchanges. ETFs are coming. (Big deal.)</p>
<p>→ <strong>Binance is melting down? </strong>Rumors are spreading that Binance is on the verge of collapse.</p>
<p>Obviously, there’s a lot happening.</p>
<p><strong>Short answer: I have NO CLUE where Bitcoin is headed in the short-term.</strong></p>
<p>I have a much better idea where it’s headed long-term.</p>
<p>BUT…</p>
<p>If you’re bearish on Bitcoin -- and are looking for a way to short it -- then you’re in luck.</p>
<h3 class=How to Short it.

In June 2022, ProShares released their Bitcoin Short ETF (BITI).

(You can even buy it on Robinhood.)

It makes shorting Bitcoin incredibly easy.

(I’m reminded of that old Jurassic Park quote. To paraphrase: Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should.)

As we have since the beginning…

James and I are taking the long-view with crypto.

We’re bullish on Bitcoin. We’re even more bullish on Ethereum. AND we see way bigger opportunities than both of them in crypto.

(Especially when crypto converges with AI.)

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