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Bitcoin, Black Swans, and Market Mayhem

Bitcoin, Black Swans, and Market Mayhem

Chris Campbell

Posted March 19, 2025

Chris Campbell

There are bad predictions. There are lucky predictions.

And then there’s Josh Mandell.

Or, as he’s now known on X: Joshtradamus.

Josh just pulled off the financial equivalent of calling a coin flip—except he didn’t just predict heads or tails.

He calculated the exact trajectory, wind speed, and molecular makeup of the air it would spin through…

Then yelled “Edge!”

Months before the coin actually landed on its edge.

But instead of a quarter, it was Bitcoin.

Specifically, he predicted Bitcoin’s price—down to the cent. Down to the second.

Months in advance.

If you’re not impressed, I assume you’re currently operating from a timeline where precognition is not much to write home about. (In which case, please DM me next week’s lottery numbers.)

The Call That Shouldn’t Have Been Possible

Specifically, Mandell said, months in advance, that Bitcoin would close at exactly $84,000 on March 14, 2025 (Pi Day).

Last Friday.

Where did it close? Well, the exact closing price depends on the specific data source or exchange used…

But a couple did hit the $84,000 mark on the nose…

And the average seems to be around $83,998.

If you’ve ever traded, you know that even the best analysts give predictions with wide margins. Maybe Bitcoin would hit $80,000 in Q1. Possibly $100,000 sometime in 2025.

But Mandell? He gave a precise date, price, and time—down to the minute.

And then, impossibly, Bitcoin did that….

The odds of this happening randomly are approximately one in "don’t be ridiculous."

Obviously, people scrambled for explanations.

How did he know? No market manipulation could have engineered this (right?). Traders obsess over ranges, support levels, resistance points. No one predicts exact numbers.

The X-Twittersphere has settled on four distinct possibilities:

  1. He’s a time traveler
  2. He’s a market insider
  3. We live in a simulation
  4. He found a four-leaf clover

Mandell, for his part, doesn’t help dispel the mystery.

He plays into it, dropping cryptic hints. He talks about “memories of something that happened 30 years ago,” implying he’s seen this before.

He retweets theories on quantum physics, the multiverse, and numerology, hinting that some are “getting warm.”

(His next prediction? $100,000… and then, it seems, $440,000.)

It’s a rabbit hole.

One, for sanity’s sake, we can’t afford to travel too deep down this week.

BUT…

It might not even be as deep as the one our own Paradigm colleague dug.

Watch Out For March 20 (Tomorrow!)

If you’re intrigued by this March 14th story…

Keep an eye on March 20th.

This time, it’s not Mandell making the call. It’s Mason Sexton—the man who predicted the 1987 crash on live television, the 2008 collapse, and the COVID market wipeout.

Mason isn’t dropping cryptic memes or playing the social media game.

But, months ago (coincidentally around the same time Mandell made his Bitcoin prediction)…

Mason circled March 20th as the most significant market event of the quarter.

Fast-forward to today: markets are tense. Volatility is creeping up.

Is this the moment that sends Bitcoin screaming past $100K, riding the “Mandell Candle” chaos? Or is this the event that triggers the sell-off of the decade? (Or is it both?) 

Time will tell.

All I know?

The people who listened to him in ’87 were glad they did. The ones who listened in 2008? Same thing.

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