The year is 547 BCE.

Croesus, the King of Lydia, sits on his gilded chariot.

He’s off to see the Oracle at Delphi.

The journey is no small feat—it spans rivers, mountains, and the kind of terrain that breaks both horses and men. But Croesus, confident in his destiny, presses onward.

At last, they arrive and the Oracle offers a prediction: "If you cross the river Halys, a great empire will fall."

“Great,” Croesus thought to himself, “Persia’s toast!”

So, chest puffed, he crossed the river, ready for glory.

Sure enough… the Oracle was right.

But plot twist: it was Croesus’ empire that fell.

Nothing New Under the Sun

These days, most no longer seek out strange mystics in robes.

(Most!)

But most of us still do, in fact, consult oracles.

Only now, their sacred vapors are replaced by algorithms. Their visions come from crunching data. Their wisdom streams live—but only if you’ve paid for premium.

Take, for example, the one who calls himself “PlanB”...

The pseudonymous creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.

If you’re not familiar…

PlanB’s rise to prominence in the crypto world was like a comet streaking across a pitch-black sky. His S2F model was hailed as the ultimate crystal ball for Bitcoin’s future.

But, just like the oracles of old…

He’s got a knack for saying things that sound brilliant. Right up until you try to explain them to your friends at a dinner party.

For that reason (and others, as you’ll see), PlanB was tarred and feathered in the last bear cycle -- when his predictions fell short.

But now he’s back… and bolder than ever.

Today, let’s break down his latest prediction simply -- and see why he might be right. (But NOT for the reasons he thinks.) 

Why $500,000 Bitcoin

Back in 2019, when Bitcoin was hovering around $4,000, PlanB predicted it would soar to six figures by 2021.

Everyone thought he was nuts.

Despite Bitcoin’s meteoric rise to $69,000 in late 2021, it fell short.

Close, but no cigar.

The critics still pounced. 

They argued that macroeconomic forces, like inflation and regulatory pressure, were wildcards the S2F model couldn’t account for.

But PlanB doubled down…

He insisted his model wasn’t broken—just delayed.

Now? He predicts a Bitcoin mania phase similar to past cycles, with FOMO driving prices higher than most expect.

Anywhere from $250,000 to $1 million.

If you want to get inside his brain, he bases his predictions on three key metrics:

First, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of market momentum, is currently on the rise at 77.

Anything above 80 marks heightened FOMO.

PlanB expects 2025 to deliver several months of RSI above 80, marking the height of market exuberance.

Second, the Realized Price, which tracks the average cost of Bitcoin as it’s moved on-chain. Essentially, it shows what the market "paid" for Bitcoin on average.

If the Realized Price moves above the actual price (market price), it suggests the market is undervalued or investors are holding at higher costs, expecting prices to rise—a bullish indicator.

Right now, the Realized Price is on the rise.

Finally, his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.

The idea is simple: the higher the ratio of stock (current supply of Bitcoin in circulation) to flow (rate at which new Bitcoin is created (mined)), the scarcer Bitcoin becomes, and the higher its value.

Right now, the S2F is flashing that Bitcoin is undervalued. According to PlanB, it’s projecting potential swings between $250k to $1 million this cycle.

The Map is Not the Territory

Of course…

Just as Croesus misinterpreted the Oracle's warning, it’s possible to over-rely on any one model.

PlanB says it himself: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”

Or, put a different way, “The map is not the territory.”

Models and projections are tools—helpful, yes, but they don’t define reality. The territory is what really matters.

BUT… the territory is changing.

Fast.

With the Trump administration taking office soon—widely deemed as the most pro-crypto government to date—we’re looking at a potential flood of catalysts in 2025.

Think deregulation that unleashes institutional money, a pullback on overreach from the SEC, and an embrace of blockchain innovation as a strategic asset.

While no model can predict the future with precision, the signs in the real world—the territory—are hard to ignore.

More on what crypto will look like with Trump (and others) at the tip of the spear tomorrow.