Bubble is Not a Dirty Word
Posted December 23, 2024
Chris Campbell
Forget “Greed is good.”
Here’s a new one: “Bubbles are brilliant.”
They’re not the villains of the financial world—they’re the misunderstood heroes, building the future one frenzy at a time.
At least, that’s the case of a new book I just started on called Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation.
In it, author Byrne Hobart reframes the discussion on bubbles:
What if bubbles were not just inevitable, but also necessary? What if speculative manias are the force that propels humanity forward, building the future we can’t yet imagine?
Consider: some of the most transformative technologies and infrastructures we have today were born from bubbles.
Railroads in the 19th century, the internet in the 1990s, and, more recently, cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence.
These bubbles weren’t merely accelerants; in many cases, they were the only reason these innovations ever materialized on a mass scale.
It’s an interesting framing not just for builders… but also for investors.
BUT, one thing you should know…
Not all bubbles are created equally. Not all of them are good.
Knowing the difference makes all the difference.
Productive vs. Destructive Bubbles
Some bubbles are productive, driving technological leaps and societal transformation. Others are destructive, merely inflating asset prices without creating lasting value.
Productive bubbles focus on building the future.
Think of the internet bubble—it funded fiber-optic networks, data centers, and software development that form the backbone of today’s economy. Cryptocurrencies, for all their volatility, have spurred innovations in decentralized finance and digital property rights.
Artificial intelligence, another bubble-in-the-making, is reshaping industries from healthcare to logistics.
Destructive bubbles, on the other hand, are exercises in financial engineering and speculation.
The housing bubble of the mid-2000s, for instance, inflated home prices and created unsustainable debt, but it didn’t leave behind transformative infrastructure or innovation.
These bubbles merely pull forward consumption and create temporary wealth without addressing fundamental needs or enabling new possibilities.
The Anatomy of a Bubble
To understand why bubbles might be good, it helps to cut them open and look at their bones.
Bubbles begin when people believe in a future so profoundly different from the present they’re willing to make bets that only make sense if that future comes to pass.
They pour money and resources into ideas and technologies that may seem absurd…
But the collective belief pushes boundaries and accelerates progress.
During the dot-com bubble, companies raised billions of dollars on the promise of a connected world.
The bubble popped, but fortunes weren’t “lost”, they changed hands.
And what remained was the foundation of the digital age.
Amazon, Google, and countless other innovations rose from the ashes. Similarly, the railroad bubbles of the 19th century left behind a transportation network that revolutionized commerce and industry, even if many investors lost their shirts in the process.
Embracing the Madness
So, should we embrace bubbles? Not blindly.
Recognizing the difference between a productive bubble and a destructive one is key.
But dismissing bubbles outright is to misunderstand their role in human progress. They are the crucibles where ideas are forged, risks are taken, and the future is built.
The next time you hear someone lament the madness of a bubble, ask yourself: what’s being built in the frenzy?
What foundations are being laid for the next era of progress?
Bubbles are not just a feature of our economic system; they are a feature of our humanity.
They are how we dream big, take risks, and create the future.
Bubbles are inevitable—and they can also be wildly profitable.
And, as you know…
You can profit whether they’re the good type OR the baddies…