As I paddled through the chaos of Consensus 2025—dodging Bitcoin maxis, AI prophets, and wild D.C. rumors—something else was brewing halfway across the world.

In Dubai, at TOKEN2049, Balaji Srinivasan stepped on stage and dropped a roadmap for the next 20 years.

What he envisions is one possibility out of many potential timelines (as he himself admits)…

But ignoring it would be a mistake.

Balaji’s not your average futurist. He’s a strange mix of oracle and operator—Stanford PhD, Coinbase CTO, and angel to half the apps on your phone.

He’s not always right.

But when he is, it’s disturbingly right.

And what he laid out in Dubai wasn’t just about crypto. It was about the end of the American empire, the rise of China, and the birth of something entirely new.

Here’s what that means… and why I’m leaning in.

The American Empire Is Over

Balaji opened with a pill that, I’m sure, went down a lot easier in Dubai: The American Empire was real. It was spectacular. But now it’s over.

It had:

• The global reserve currency.

• The world’s biggest military.

• Cultural dominance via Hollywood, Silicon Valley, and Coca-Cola.

But now? All the arrows are pointing down.

• Left vs. Right: America’s internal culture war is no longer just political—it’s existential. Each side sees the other as illegitimate. It’s more than disagreement. It’s dissolution.

• China vs. Uncle Sam: Globally, America’s dominance is being challenged on every physical front—energy, manufacturing, infrastructure, trade routes, even space. The unipolar moment is over.

• CEOs fleeing Delaware like it's on fire: The U.S. used to be the default jurisdiction for business. Now founders are looking elsewhere after activist judges and inconsistent rulings make corporate law unpredictable. When Delaware no longer works, America’s economic software is breaking down.

America isn’t collapsing because of an external shock. It’s unraveling from within. The vacuum is forming now.

And China is stepping in. 

China Isn’t the Future—It’s One of the Futures

Peter Zeihan says America wins the next 100 years because of geography. Balaji says: China already won the physical world.

Just look at the scoreboard:

• #1 in steel, cars, rail, nuclear energy, ports, ships, cities.

• Largest navy on earth.

• A car factory the size of San Francisco.

• A flying car you can actually ride in—already livestreamed by IShowSpeed.

They’re not just copying the West anymore. They’re building bigger and faster. And the West is falling behind.

And yet…

China might win the physical game. But they’ve lost the internet.

China’s Real Challenger? The Internet Itself

This is the big flip.

Balaji says the future isn’t China vs. America.

It’s China vs. the Internet.

A billion-person superstate vs. a thousand million-person networks.

Because the internet isn’t a physical place—but it’s about to create physical places. Not just online chat rooms or Twitter cliques. But actual jurisdictions, with their own economies, rules, currencies, contracts, identities.

And most importantly? Values.

If you think that’s a stretch…

Consider that you already live “internet first.” The internet has already replaced the mail system, media, mobility, space programs, money, contracts, science, and democracy.

It’s not just integrating into the old civilization. In Balaji’s eyes, it’s becoming its own civilization. And instead of being born in a capital or a castle, it’s being built on GitHub, Discord, Ethereum, and encrypted group chats.

He says:

“If you went from gold → fiat → Bitcoin…

 You can go from Kingdom → Nation-State → Network State.”

Just like America was once a group of small colonies that grew, merged, and formed a union—Balaji believes online communities will do the same.

In fact, it’s already happening.

The Two Models

Let’s zoom out.

There are two competing visions of civilization emerging:

1. The Vertical Model (China): Everything is centralized. One stack. One state. One culture. Efficiency, scale, and order. The Party and the Platform are one.

2. The Horizontal Model (The Internet): Imagine if your government was more like Netflix. Sign up. Cancel anytime. Compete for your loyalty. That’s the internet’s idea of power.

And here’s the part that’ll make your inner centrist squirm:

“If your life isn’t aligned with one of those two vectors—China or the Internet—you’re in trouble.”

The Battle Has Already Started

This isn’t a metaphor.

Right now:

• China is weaponizing open-source AI to tank U.S. tech valuations.

• Crypto is building parallel systems with their own money, rules, and identities.

• And Elon Musk? He’s playing both sides like a Bond villain.

Is Balaji’s vision absolutely inevitable? Unlikely.

Maybe Zeihan is right and America finds a second century-defining wind. Maybe China stumbles. Maybe the internet eats itself with deepfakes and quantum hacks.

But if he’s even halfway right about the enormity of the shift ahead…

Then sitting still is the riskiest position of all.

I’m not buying the whole thesis. But I am tracking the probabilities. Watching where the builders flock. Watching China like a hawk.

Because the upside of being early? Could dwarf entire careers, markets, maybe even countries.

Not saying I’m going to Beijing to see the other side of the future.

Just saying I’m watching flight prices.