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Crypto is Dead Forever (Again)

Chris Campbell

Posted March 07, 2023

Chris Campbell

Tech investing is tricky for three big reasons.

The first one is called “The Accelerators Dilemma”: Innovation always causes chaos before it makes things better.

The Internet took the world by storm, changing it forever, but it started out with scams and porn.

Second reason is that new technology often looks 'like a solution in search of a problem' right up until the moment it begins changing everything.

Who else recalls David Letterman talking to Bill Gates about the Internet in 1995?

“A couple of months ago,” said Letterman, “there was this big breakthrough announcement that they were going to broadcast a baseball game on the Internet. You could listen to a baseball game on your computer. And I just thought to myself, ‘Does radio ring a bell?’”

The third reason? Because it’s famously volatile.

In fact, we’re in the midst of the crypto industry’s fifth bear market…

And they all have a few lessons to teach.

Bear Market #1

The first bear market was in 2011, when Bitcoin crashed from $32 to 1 cent in just a few short days.

What happened? Security breach at the Mt. Gox exchange, which, at its peak, made up 80% of all Bitcoin transactions, caused chaos in the Bitcoin market.

The exchange saw 850,000 BTC stolen -- worth over $19 BILLION today.

It was catastrophic. Bitcoin was dead. Everyone knew it.

Bear Market #2

Then, in April 2013, Bitcoin blew past $100.

By November 2013, it topped out at a whopping $1,000. Nobody expected it.

One month later, it crashed to $700. The price continued to plummet, hitting a low of $170 in January 2015.

What happened? The price drop arrived on the heels of China’s central bank cracking down on Bitcoin, prohibiting local financial institutions from handling BTC.

(The first of many times China banned Bitcoin.)

It was catastrophic. Bitcoin was dead. Everyone knew it.

Bear Market #3

In January 2017, Bitcoin hit $1,000.

By this time, Ethereum was making waves. And there was a slew of “altcoins” on the market, causing a speculative frenzy.

By December 2017, Bitcoin hit $20,000.

Then, Bitcoin crashed bigly -- dropping 60% by the end of February 2018.

The first major “crypto winter” commenced as Bitcoin bottomed at around $3,200 in December 2018.

What happened? Fear started seizing the crypto markets when Coincheck, a Japanese crypto exchange, suffered a hack that resulted in a loss of $530 million in the crypto NEM (XLM).

In March 2018, Facebook and Google began banning crypto ads on their platforms. Adding insult to injury, the CFTC rejected applications for BTC ETFs.

It was catastrophic. Crypto was dead. Everyone knew it.

Bear Market #4

In 2020, Bitcoin skyrocketed up to $20,000… marking the beginning of another massive bull run.

By April 2021, Bitcoin had hit $69,000.

But then, by mid-April -- in three short months -- Bitcoin crashed down to $29,000…

What happened? Bitcoin mining fell under scrutiny with the rise of ESG investing. The fear escalated when Tesla dropped Bitcoin as a payment option in May, with Musk citing potential environmental concerns.

It was catastrophic. Bitcoin was dead. Everyone knew it.

But this bear market was short-lived.

Despite China cracking down on mining farms, Bitcoin started its upward trend in July 2021, topping out at $68,000.

Bear Market #5.

In late 2021, Bitcoin started dropping, hitting below $20,000 by June -- which hadn’t happened since 2020.

What happened? Better yet, what didn’t happen? Terra Luna crashed, causing a crisis in crypto lending. Crypto lenders like Celsius were forced to suspend withdrawals. Then, of course, FTX crashed, causing another round of contagion.

And now Silvergate (SI) is under threat of going bust.

It’s catastrophic. Crypto is dead. Everyone knows it.

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