Federal Bitcoin: The No Sales Plan
Posted November 08, 2024
Chris Campbell
The US government isn't new to stockpiling assets.
Since the 1930s, they've been hoarding everything from water to gold to, if you believe my neighbor Rick, little green men and their spaceships.
We've got strategic grain reserves (1930s), gold reserves (1934), petroleum reserves (1974), and even a strategic cheese reserve from 1933.
Yes, cheese.
So, heck, why not a Bitcoin reserve?
That’s what Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed in her BITCOIN Act (Boosting Innovation Technology and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide).
The plan? Accumulate 1 million Bitcoin over five years, with a cap of 200,000 BTC per year.
Indeed, the US government already holds roughly 200,000 Bitcoin from various seizures.
But this would be different. This would be strategic, intentional accumulation with a 20-year minimum hold period.
So WHY would we do it? Let me lay out the case made by the advocates…
And then show you why a Trump-led “quasi-reserve” is far more likely. And what it means for you.
The Case For a Bitcoin Reserve
The case is pretty simple.
The Federal debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with interest payments alone exceeding $1 trillion annually -- second only to Social Security payments.
Traditional solutions aren't cutting it.
Austerity? Political suicide. Tax increases? Even worse. Money printing? Eh… That's what got us here.
Game theory suggests that once one major nation establishes a significant Bitcoin reserve, others will follow.
El Salvador was first, but they're small potatoes. When a superpower like the US makes this move, it changes everything.
And the tension is increased by one simple fact: the supply dynamics are brutal for late-adopters.
So it pays to be early.
There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin, with an estimated 2-3 million already lost forever.
So let’s say the US locks up 1 million in a strategic reserve -- that's roughly 5% of the total supply off the market. Forever.
If this were to happen, the market implications would be profound. Just MicroStrategy's relatively modest $20 million daily Bitcoin purchases are moving the needle.
Imagine systematic purchasing of 200,000 BTC annually by the US government.
Some analysts project this could establish a price floor around $173,000 per Bitcoin, potentially doubling after the next halving.
But WILL it happen? Yes, no, and kind of.
Realistically, Lummis' plan to buy 1 million Bitcoin faces massive hurdles and we’re just not there yet.
In contrast, Trump will likely embrace a simpler approach: just not selling the seized Bitcoin.
This requires no new spending or legislation, making it a far more likely "easy win" for the administration's first moves in crypto policy.
However, one thing remains true:
The first major nation to embrace Bitcoin whole hog could rewrite the script entirely.
The clock is ticking. The pieces are moving.
The biggest risk now is getting left behind.
P.S.