How to Sound Smarter This Thanksgiving
Posted November 27, 2024
Davis Wilson
Happy Thanksgiving!
Enjoy your quality time with family and friends this weekend.
If your holidays are anything like mine, you’ll find yourself in a conversation or two about financial markets.
He’s a quick (and easy) run-down to help you sound a bit more informed:
Let’s start with the overall stock market. The S&P 500, which tracks the 500 largest stocks, is hovering at all-time highs – up 25.5% this year alone.
5-Year S&P 500 Price Chart
The S&P 500 is getting expensive compared to historical valuations, however.
Below is this Forward Price-to-Earnings ratio for the index.
You can think of this like cost-per-ounce labels on packaged goods at grocery stores.
The higher the ratio, the more expensive the S&P 500.
Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio Highest Since 2021
The Forward Price-to-Earnings ratio currently sits above 22-times forward earnings estimates. This is its highest level since 2021, and not far from its 2000 high.
Maybe this is why Warren Buffett is loading up on cash?
Berkshire’s cash pile has varied considerably over the years, from 1% in 1994 to closer to 28% today, and everything in between.
The record shows Buffett consistently raises Berkshire’s cash allocation as stock valuations rise during booms – and expected returns consequently decline – and draws down cash as opportunities arise.
Let’s stay nimble in case any downturn happens in the near future. Depending on the news, I’d expect the high-quality stocks I talk about here at The Million Mission to rebound sharply on a selloff.
Now let’s look at the markets since Donald Trump was elected president.
We’ve had a large run-up in stocks since the election – nearly 4%.
Here’s where the most money is going:
Total Flows Into US Equity Funds by Sector (Since Election)
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Now let’s get to crypto.
Here is the performance of top cryptocurrencies since the election.
Note: Donald Trump was seen as the pro-crypto candidate.
Crypto Prices Post-Election (As of November 24th)
Dogecoin (DOGE) and Ripple (XRP) have been the big winners since the election.
Dogecoin is frequently promoted by Elon Musk, who now has the ear of President Elect Trump.
Bitcoin is also up nearly 40% since the election. Its price has increased 1,130% in the last five years.
5-Year Bitcoin Price Chart
I recommend you own Bitcoin yourself.
Love it or hate it, betting on Bitcoin has proven to pay off for the last 15 years and will likely continue to pay off for years to come. You can read more about my thoughts on crypto here and here.
I’ll end with three interesting charts on newsworthy topics.
Here’s where the bulk of US government spending went this year.
Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy – the new leaders of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) – have their work cut out for them. For more insights visit the DOGE X/Twitter account.
Nuclear power is gaining support, while natural gas is still king of the US power grid.
While you’re celebrating Thanksgiving, ask the teenagers in your life how much time they spend per day on cell phones, computers, or television daily.
Odds are, 50% spend more than four hours per day.
Talk to you soon.
Enjoy the holiday.