Yesterday I showed you why I'm not backing up the truck on SpaceX.

Today I'll show you exactly when I plan to start the engine.

Quick refresher for anyone who skipped it…

On next Thursday’s open, some 911 million shares of SpaceX come unlocked. The entire tradeable float right now is 639 million.

As Elon likes to say…

Let that sink in.

One Thursday morning hands the market 1.4 times the existing supply of a stock that's already rolled over from $200. Two days after the first earnings report in company history.

But here’s what I didn’t mention yesterday: that's only the first step.

Another 7% drips loose every couple of weeks through late October. Then another 1.3 billion shares after the Q3 report in November.

On December 8, everything left breaks the cage. Call it 4.6 billion shares between now and Christmas.

Historically, 15% to 40% of newly freed shares get sold in the first few weeks of each unlock. Given who's holding this, lean high.

Take, for example, the venture funds. They've been locked in for maybe ten years. They’re still up big.

And, for some, selling might not be a choice.

They owe money to pensions and endowments who've spent a decade asking one question—when do we get paid? August 6 is the first exit door anybody has offered them.

They need liquidity.

Then there are the employees.

Twenty-somethings sitting on eight-figure paper. As you read this, they’re calling realtors and scrolling through different colored Lambos.

Now consider something else:

The Forced Buyer is Exhausted

Russell 1000 added SpaceX in June. Nasdaq 100 took it on July 7. The biggest forced buying is already behind us.

And the S&P 500 requires GAAP profitability, which SpaceX doesn't have—it lost $5 billion last year—so the largest automated buyer on Earth sits this one out.

Even the bulls know the math.

Morgan Stanley carries a $300 target, the highest of the major banks. Their own note has SpaceX free-cash-flow negative until 2035 and needing roughly $84 billion a year of outside capital from 2027 through 2034.

That's the bull case.

My SPCX Strategy

None of this is a knock on SpaceX.

I want to own it. It’s a monster. One company flies more than 80% of what humanity puts into orbit. Someday, it will be the most valuable company on the planet.

So here's what I'm doing. $160 a day. Every trading day, no exceptions, no thinking. It keeps me in the story while I wait to start the truck.

But I'm not waiting for a specific number. I'm waiting for a specific moment—when the biggest lockups clear, the shorts start covering, and the tape stops making new lows.

That cluster is my signal. Best guess: it lands in November.

Here's the real opportunity…

The Fun Part

While SpaceX could get cheaper from here, the things SpaceX needs will not.

A company burning $84 billion a year has one way to keep its cost curve from eating it alive—own the bottleneck.

Buy the supplier. Vertically integrate the piece nobody else can make. Musk loves this move because it works.

And that short list exists. But it’s small.

One name on it has a market cap smaller than what SpaceX spends on propellant in a quarter.

At the same time, going public handed SpaceX something it never had—stock it can spend. So it buys the pieces it can't afford to keep renting.

James has been using AI to track Elon’s every move. And his AI system keeps pointing at one company.