Four times a year the SEC makes billionaires empty their pockets on the table. 

Any fund running more than $100 million in U.S. stocks files a Form 13F within 45 days of quarter's end. It lists what they own. It says nothing about why.

Last week the confessions came in.

BUT, here’s the hitch… 

A confession is a photograph, and an old one. 

It shows what a fund held on June 30, filed six weeks later, and only the U.S. stocks and listed options. No shorts, no cash, no private stakes. By the time you read it, the manager has had a month and a half to sell everything.

So why bother? Because thirty stale photographs from the same week tell you something no single one can. One fund buying a stock is a trade. Twelve funds buying a stock is a migration.

And this quarter is more interesting than most. Especially because one of the filings is a chalk outline.

Leopold's Final Note

Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness no longer exists. The paperwork does.

SanDisk was 28.5% of the book. Micron 28%. Bloom Energy 9.5%. TSMC, Nebius and CoreWeave filled out the rest. Fifty-six percent in two memory stocks, with leverage on top. Then SK Hynix printed the best quarter in its history and fell 20% the following week. 

That was enough.

The cruel part? The thesis held. 

SanDisk unveiled a new memory type backlogged into 2027. Next year's supply is sold out. 

Every other fund bought the dip. 

Leopold is reportedly back with a fresh half billion. Pigs get slaughtered. But sometimes they rise from the dead.

The Tip of the Spear 

On the frontier sits Brad Gerstner of Altimeter and Gavin Baker of Atreides. 

Gerstner is the loudest Nvidia bull alive. Baker is the hardware obsessive—semis, memory, optics—and one of SpaceX's biggest private backers.

Their books match the men. 

Gerstner holds $1.9 billion of Nvidia and $1.6 billion of Cerebras. Baker holds $4.7 billion of SpaceX, then Micron, Cerebras, Astera Labs, Ciena and Credo. 

Those last three are plumbing. A hundred thousand GPUs have to talk to each other. Copper wastes power at that scale. The fix is moving data with light. Coherent makes the parts and is up 85% this year.

Baker also owns $2.3 billion in QQQ puts. Leopold had a hedge too. The difference was sizing.

The Rest of the Room

Nvidia filed a 13F of its own. 

Largest position: $30 billion of Intel, because you need CPUs to orchestrate GPUs. Then SpaceX, CoreWeave, Coherent, Nokia, Synopsys. 

Bill Ackman was the lone wolf. He bought Visa, Mastercard, and Netflix and trimmed Amazon by a quarter. 

Why the payment processors? Because Stripe just bought OpenRouter, and every AI agent on Earth will soon need to pay for tokens. Here, Ackman is betting the old toll booths collect.

Seth Klarman at Baupost, David Tepper at Appaloosa and Tiger Global all have Amazon at number one. 

And Berkshire, with Greg Abel at the helm, spent $17 billion on Alphabet in a single quarter. The logic: Google owns the whole stack, and everyone else rents part of it from somebody. Google rents from Google.

Line it up… 

Alphabet, most held. Then Amazon, TSMC and SpaceX. 

Underneath, power, memory, neoclouds, payments. Two hundred billion dollars of the smartest money in America is standing on one side of the boat.

And yet… 

Berkshire’s biggest position remains what it has been for a decade.

Apple. 

The First $10 Trillion Company 

Here's what Omaha may already know.

Microsoft, Meta, Google and Amazon have spent $1.3 trillion on AI. Apple has spent $13 billion. This is the Apple playbook since the beginning. 

Wait. Let the others bleed. Walk in and take the market.

And soon, we might see confirmation. 

In September, Apple will hold its biggest event of the year. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman says the main attraction is a folding iPhone, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and new Watches. 

But let the crowd watch the hinge.

James believes the real announcement is Apple finally entering the AI race. And its next move could send Apple’s stock toward $10 trillion, the first company ever to get there. 

Sounds crazy. But he's made this kind of call before. 

In 2011 he said Apple would be the first $1 trillion company. He was laughed out of the room. (The rest, of course, is history.)