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The Medici Wealth Secret… at Costco

Chris Campbell

Posted October 17, 2024

Chris Campbell

Wealthy families, like the Medicis, invested a great chunk of their wealth in solid, tangible assets—land, gold, and even bonds with European powers.

However, they were also no stranger to risk: they loved to fund artists, innovators, and explorers.

These investments could yield unpredictable but potentially extraordinary rewards…

From Renaissance masterpieces that elevated their status to new trade routes that bolstered their fortunes.

In short, though they weren’t absolutists…

The elites favor the barbell strategy.

The barbell strategy says: go big on both extremes and ditch the middle.

Here’s how it works:

Play it safe: Dump money into super-safe stuff—basically anything that won’t get killed by a market crash.

It’s boring, but it keeps you protected.

Bet the rest on high-upside potential: Throw the rest at high-risk, high-reward plays. These are the tombola tickets—startups, options, crypto. Small bets are key. If they tank, they won’t destroy you. But if they take off? Big money.

The barbell strategy essentially says forget the “safe, steady” middle ground.

And it has merit.

Those overweight in the middle often end up taking on the worst of both worlds.

(Especially in times of chaos.)

When a financial crisis hits, for example, these medium-risk investments are often the first to tank. And they don’t tend to bounce back as quickly as the risky assets might.

Many of them are left limping behind, weighed down by the same volatility that crushed them in the first place.

Instead, by balancing ultra-safe with ultra-risky, you hedge against disaster while staying in the game for the big win.

But there’s also a way to supercharge this strategy.

The Steady Stars

Sometimes, you find assets that are both relatively low-risk but with high upside potential.

Let’s call them “Steady Stars.”

They’re the assets that have a solid foundation for stability but also the potential for big gains if conditions align.

IMHO…

Silver is a great example of a Steady Star.

Many have made strong cases for the moon metal elsewhere (you’ve probably heard it all before), but here’s the gist:

Silver’s not just a precious metal; it’s also an industrial one.

It’s used in everything from electronics to solar panels and medical equipment. As technology advances, so does the demand for silver, giving it a growth factor that traditional safe-haven assets might lack.

For that reason, silver has a shot of outperforming gold.

And, right now, you might have a unique opportunity to grab silver at a discount…

From Costco.

At least, that’s what I’m doing.

The Silver Costco Trick

Many Costcos are now selling 10 oz. silver bars.

If you’re keen on silver, here’s a good trick to keep in mind.

Next time you go, don’t beeline straight for the free samples…

Head to the jewelry section instead.

You know, the place where they keep the shiny watches and necklaces? That’s where it’ll be.

Costco is rolling out these bars sporadically, so they might not have them every time you go. Some locations have them, some don’t.

(Also, the limit seems to be five 10 oz. bars. It’s not clear if that means per visit or per membership. I will inquire.)

But, you can’t just grab a handful of silver and put it in your cart. Instead, you’ll see a little card.

Fill it out.

But, before you fill it out, strategize:

The Purchase

Here’s where this strategy comes into play.

Costco’s register system doesn’t exactly cater to silver stackers. You’re going to have to finesse this.

Pay for your silver separately from everything else.

This is crucial.

Why? Because you don’t want to get hit with unnecessary taxes.

On the Costco register, there’s a “TAX EXEMPT” button. But, as far as I can tell, it’s not selective. It either applies to everything or nothing.

In many states, silver bullion over a certain amount is tax-exempt. Don’t assume Costco knows this.

Mention it. Make it a point. Insist on it.

But make sure you know your state’s threshold… and plan your purchase accordingly.

In my home state of Ohio, there’s a complete tax exemption for the sale of investment metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bullion.

In Texas and Virginia, bullion sales over $1,000 are exempt.

Florida? $500.

(Alabamans get the shaft: $10,000.)

If the cashier seems unsure about tax exemptions on bullion, politely request a manager.

You don’t want to pay extra just because someone didn’t hit the “tax exempt” button.

Now, here’s the kicker…

The Rewards: Maximize Your Cash Back

Costco’s Executive Membership ($130 per year) offers 2% cash back on purchases.

But here’s the pro move: use a cash-back credit card that gives you an additional percentage.

That’s up to 3% more.

Combine that with your membership benefits, and you’re pocketing 5% back on your silver purchase.

So… that’s the playbook.

Grab your Executive Membership card, your cash-back credit card, and hit up Costco for some shiny, tax-free, cash-back silver.

Now, if silver is (mostly) on the left side of the barbell…

What about the other side? 

For that, our Paradigm colleague Davis Wilson has a big market update below.

If you tuned into Davis’ article in the same place on Tuesday, you’re already up 8% in two days. (Congrats.)

But this, says Davis, is just the beginning.

Read on.

We Made 8% In 2 Days… There’s More To Come

I hope you read Altucher Confidential on Tuesday.

That’s because I explained a market reaction that was similar to “throwing the baby out with the bathwater.”

And the opportunity it presented is already paying off.

ASML leaked its earnings results that day.

The stock sank 16% immediately and brought down the wider chip sector with it.

The link that investors were piecing together was: ASML makes the equipment used to make semiconductors => their earnings were weaker than expected => so demand for semiconductors must be weaker than expected.

Here’s the blurb in ASML’s press release that sent stock prices lower:

"While there continue to be strong developments and upside potential in AI, other market segments are taking longer to recover. It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness.”

What investors were misunderstanding (I wrote all about this on Tuesday. Feel free to read it here.) was that ASML operates in multiple markets – some stronger than others.

Logic and Memory are the two markets taking longer to recover, according to ASML’s press release.

This is bad news for Micron and Intel primarily, who are leaders in that space.

Nvidia, on the other hand, operates in the AI market, which according to ASML’s own press release – and many, many other sources – continues to show “strong developments and upside potential.”

After falling 5% on Tuesday following this leaked press release, NVDA has come roaring back.

The stock is up nearly 8% since Tuesday’s selloff.

Today, I’d like to add one more source to the long list of companies saying that AI “continues to show strong developments and upside potential.”

“U.S. chip stocks rose on Thursday after industry bellwether TSMC's strong sales forecast boosted investor optimism about demand for processors used to power artificial intelligence applications.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world's largest contract chipmaker, raised its expectation for annual revenue growth and said sales from AI chips would account for mid-teen percentage of its full-year revenue.

In the Thursday earnings call, TSMC Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei stressed that AI demand is “real” and that the company has experienced the “deepest and widest growth of anyone in this industry,” as a result.”

The order of operations is: ASML sells machinery to TSMC who manufactures chips for Nvidia and others.

The chip sector moved sharply higher today on this TSMC news.

So whereas many investors panic-sold on Tuesday thinking ASML’s earnings were forecasting a gloomy future for the chip sector, it’s important to know that not all chip stocks are created equal and this AI revolution isn’t stopping anytime soon.

TSMC’s earnings – and ASML’s for people that read it correctly – prove this.

My price target on NVDA remains the same.

The stock has consistently traded up from ~50x P/E after reporting earnings to ~70-80x each of the last three quarters.

I’m betting this time is no different.

The company has $2.16 in trailing earnings.

Multiply this by 70-80x and you get a price target between $151 and $173.

I expect we get there before the next earnings report.

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