In June 1959, a Navy submarine fired a guided cruise missile—with its nuclear warhead swapped for two Post Office containers holding 3,000 letters—toward a naval base in Florida.

After watching it land, Postmaster General Arthur Summerfield proclaimed it "of historic significance to the peoples of the entire world."

He predicted that "before man reaches the moon, mail will be delivered within hours from New York to California, to Britain, to India or Australia by guided missiles."

He believed guided missiles would replace or supplement air mail—point-to-point rocket delivery of physical letters and packages across continents and eventually to other countries.

Supersonic. No pilots. Land it near a post office.

Of course, he was wrong.

It never happened again.

1959 was the first and last missile mail delivery.

For obvious reasons, the idea we send physical mail via missiles is outrageously dumb. But Summerfield was onto one thing: whatever controls the delivery mechanism controls the message.

Information eventually found a way to move faster than missiles—through a network no one owns. Now the government has a new problem:

What happens when information leaks publicly before the missile launches?

The Market That Knows Too Much

Welcome to the age of prediction markets…

Where, by no coincidence…

The most accurate forecasts in history live next door to the most consequential insider trading in history. And nobody in power can agree on whether to shut it down or put it on retainer.

That’s one reason why—despite their faults—prediction markets are probably here to stay.

Which is very interesting for people like you and me.

Allow me to explain.

Win Rate: 93%

A trader recently made nearly $1 million betting on military strikes.

Not after the strikes.

Before them.

Hours before US and Israeli forces hit Iran in October 2024. Hours before airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025. Hours before the surprise attack that started the current war.

Win rate: 93%. On unannounced military operations.

That's a wire into classified information.

Then Israeli prosecutors charged an IDF reservist and a civilian for using military intelligence to bet on the timing of Israel's Iran strike. The officer allegedly sent a WhatsApp message minutes before the attack that said:

"It's starting."

He sent that message to a Polymarket position.

The Weird Part

The US Army—the same institution connected to these leaks—published a report telling its intelligence analysts to use Polymarket and Kalshi to detect national security threats.

The Federal Reserve published a paper showing Kalshi has correctly predicted every single interest rate decision since 2022.

Every one.

The day before the announcement.

So—indeed—the same markets leaking classified military secrets are being recommended by the military as intelligence tools.

And the same platforms being prosecuted as illegal gambling are being studied by the Fed as the most accurate forecasting tools in existence.

The government is both the source and customer for the signal.

Follow the Money

More than 20 states are now suing these platforms. Arizona filed criminal charges. Nevada got a court order forcing Kalshi to pull certain contracts. Washington filed suit last Friday.

The stated reason is consumer protection.

Utah's governor says prediction markets are "destroying families." Washington's attorney general says they target college students.

But look at who's actually bankrolling the opposition.

The Nevada casino industry told courts that prediction markets are an "existential threat."

A lobbying group called Gambling Is Not Investing hired Mick Mulvaney—Trump's former budget director—to fight prediction markets in Washington.

And, get this…

Gambling Is Not Investing is allied with the American Gaming Association—the traditional casino and tribal gaming lobby. But DraftKings and FanDuel recently left the AGA and are now launching their own prediction market products.

(DraftKings stock is down 50%. FanDuel is having its worst stretch in years. Kalshi is being downloaded four times as much as either of them.)

There's your consumer protection movement.

DraftKings and FanDuel spent years and hundreds of millions getting licensed state by state. Kalshi walked in through a federal backdoor, skipped all of that, and started taking their customers.

These lawsuits are about market share.

Another Telling Detail

The CEOs of Kalshi and Polymarket are fierce rivals.

They're also co-investing in the same $35 million venture fund focused on prediction market infrastructure.

The fund is backed by Marc Andreessen and other major investors.

It's not betting on any one player, but in the plumbing—the data tools, the compliance layer, the market infrastructure—that survives regardless of how the courts rule.

Kalshi is now valued at $22 billion. Polymarket at $20 billion.

Both companies have decided, the way crypto did a decade ago, that building through the legal chaos beats waiting for clarity that may never come.

And both are hedging their bets.

What I Actually Think

These markets aren't going away.

They'll get banned in some states, allowed in others, and eventually woven into financial infrastructure the way all derivatives eventually are.

The insider trading problem won't be fixed by the platforms policing themselves. It'll be fixed when someone in America actually goes to prison for it.

Until then—the data these markets produce is real and useful. When insiders aren't front-running the outcome, prediction markets are probably the most accurate forecasting tool we have.

Too accurate to ignore.

Meanwhile, the rulebook is being written right now. In courtrooms across the country. In a Senate with six competing bills and no agreement.

The casinos want them dead, states want them muzzled, the Army wants them supported, the Justice Department wants someone in handcuffs…

And even the “little guy” can read the same signals.

That’s probably worth something.