Joel Reid, an Australian science teacher, took a quick glance out of the window.

“Looks like there’s going to be a cyclone next week,” he told the class.

Some students asked how he could know that.

One student said, “The national meteorologists said the low would pass by without any problem.”

“It’s simple.”

He pointed out the window and said, “The wind has changed to go in the opposite direction, the clouds have moved north instead of south, and the corelias [a small cockatoo] have all left town and gone to shelter in Karijini [local mountain range].”

Some were impressed and wanted to know more. Others thought he was an idiot. Until, that is, a cyclone hit the next week and flooded all the roads out of town.

“The lesson here,” says Reid, “is that intelligence is not about knowledge gained through complex technology such as that used by meteorologists. Satellites, pressure gauges, wind charts -- all of that is just data. True intelligence comes from an ability to assess the data and make a reasonable determination. I made a reasonable determination based upon observational data ... data indigenous people had been using for 50,000 years with success.”

Reid told this story to illustrate the intelligence of our ancestors. They relied more on observational data than “cold data” -- or data without local context. His point is they gleaned just as much intelligence than our experts do today from Big Data… maybe more.

I don’t doubt it.

Our surroundings are constantly sending signals. But most of us have no incentive to pay attention. Many of us are too busy looking down at our phones.

Some of us are paying attention… but the media gives them precisely zero air-time.

That’s why…

If you want to know what’s already happened in the supply chain, watch the news. If you want to know what’s about to happen in the supply chain, talk to a trucker.

That’s why…

My last Uber driver taught me more about the state of Uber’s business than the Wall Street Journal ever could.

And…

My local health food store worker taught me more about what’s affecting my health (apparently mold thrives in my local environment) than my doctor did.

And, finally…

My mechanic taught me more about national shortages than CNBC. (One takeaway: bet big on synthetic rubber tires.)

Point is…

We overestimate Big Data (and the models experts produce from this data) and underestimate what’s called “Warm Data” -- or data infused with local context.

But, as time goes on, Warm Data is becoming far more important to our lives than Big Data. And we ignore it at our own peril. But here’s one way to get ahead of this trend.

The Ticking Tech Time Bomb

Our tech maven Ray Blanco has built a career on gathering Warm Data.

He talks to executives. He visits labs. He speaks to the white collars, blue collars, hoodies, and turtlenecks.

It’s how he’s been able to stay ahead of the curve for more than a decade on everything from the marijuana boom to EVs to e-sports and much more.

His advice on tech investing:

“Pay attention to the details and particulars, but don’t sweat the short-term stuff — or you’ll just drown in a glass of water. Even before Microsoft, Google and Facebook, technology has had a 200-year track record of making money for informed, aggressive investors.”

Lately, he’s been watching a “perfect storm” gather in the tech sector.

“The mainstream still isn’t seeing this story for what it’s worth,” says publisher Matt Insley in a recent interview.

Soon, however, they won’t be able to ignore it. Why? Because it threatens to drag the entire market down with it. By that time, however, it’ll be too late to do anything about it.

As Matt put it:

“The haves are going to get further ahead… and the have-nots are going to go further down…”

But you don’t have to get left behind. In fact, there are plenty of opportunities for profit… if you know where to look.

In the interview at the link, Ray and Matt want to show you where to look.

Click here to check out his latest interview… and see how to prepare.

Until tomorrow,

Chris Campbell
For Altucher Confidential