Everyone’s bracing for the big one.

Invite them to explain, and they’d run out of fingers and start counting on their toes.

War risk still simmers, trade policy shifts without warning, and rates remain restrictive compared to the easy-money era.

Credit card balances sit near records, auto delinquencies are edging higher, office real estate is still strained, and housing turnover is shivering.

Manufacturing is uneven, AI gains are concentrated, and consumer sentiment stays sour even as spending holds.

The list goes on.

Every podcaster says the same thing: “This can’t last.”

And yet…

Holiday online spending hit record levels in 2025. Airlines have struggled more with capacity constraints and delays than low demand. And the S&P 500 has remained near record territory.

So what’s going on?

Let’s lay out the simple version.

Rich People Are Carrying the Economy

The top 10% drive about half of consumer spending.

If you own stocks… you feel rich. If you own a house… you still feel rich. If Nvidia goes up… you feel richer than rich.

And when you feel rich, you spend.

You sell some stock. You take the vacation. You remodel the kitchen.

GDP survives.

That’s the wealth effect.

It works—up until a point.

AI Is a Money Furnace

Billions are pouring into data centers.

Chips. Power grids. Models.

AI accounts for a massive share of private investment growth.

It doesn’t create a ton of jobs. But it creates spending.

Concrete. Steel. GPUs. Debt issuance.

It’s a capex machine.

That machine is one thing keeping the engine humming.

Credit Is the Soft Stimulus

Tax cuts are supporting some of the demand. But the bigger driver is credit.

Credit cards. Installment plans. Auto loans. Buy-now-pay-later.

America still runs on plastic.

As long as banks lend, spending doesn’t collapse.

This doesn’t mean people are thriving.

It means they can keep going.

And here’s the crux…

The Volatility Veto

Markets believe the White House won’t tolerate a big crash.

If investors believe there’s a pain threshold—they price less downside.

Less downside risk = higher valuations.

Take, for example, what happened to tariffs. 

When tariffs were announced, markets dropped fast—billions erased in hours.

A pause immediately followed.

Then stocks ripped higher, logging one of the strongest single-day rallies since 2008.

So, in short…

The market isn’t crashing because the top is still stable. And the top is stable because assets are high. And assets are high because people believe they will stay high.

Reflexivity.

Belief feeds price. Price feeds belief.

The Real Fragility

Everything is tied to asset prices.

401(k)s. Retirements. Consumer confidence. Corporate leverage.

If stocks fall hard enough, the wealth effect reverses.

Spending drops. Credit tightens. The loop flips.

That’s the risk.

In Mason Sexton’s view, the stabilizers holding this up are showing splinters. The feedback loops are getting tighter.

And this is when defense matters as much as offense.

Here’s the thing…

Most don’t spot crashes—they read about them the next morning and sog the keyboard with tears.

But Mason Sexton has a habit of seeing them before they happen.

’87. 2008. The 2022 top. Last year’s aforementioned tariff shock.

On February 17th at 1:27 PM ET, he’s stepping out again with a new 2026 call—including a specific date he believes could trigger the next major move.

If he’s early or off, you’ve invested an hour in perspective.

If he’s right, you’ll wish you were there to see how he’s playing it.

Click here to grab your seat for this rare event.