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Well, This is Awkward (Bitcoin!!!)

Well, This is Awkward (Bitcoin!!!)

Chris Campbell

Posted December 05, 2024

Chris Campbell

“I’m surprised you think Bitcoin will go down this week,” a friend texted on Monday. “Haven’t you heard?”

“Haven’t I heard what?”

“I know you’ve heard.”

“Don’t say it.”

“The McRib is Back.” 

Yes, I’d heard. But it was a joke. A meme.

I didn’t even text him back.

He persisted, text-spamming me with historical examples:

  1. October 2020: McRib announces nationwide return. Bitcoin rallies 50%. OK, that’s kind of funny and interesting, but obviously nothing -- a coincidence.
  1. November 2021: McRib "Farewell Tour" begins. Bitcoin hits an all-time high. Also funny. But let’s not get carried away.
  1. December 2022: McRib release in select markets. Bitcoin forms a local bottom. That didn’t really happen, did it?
  1. March 2023: Surprise McRib appearance in test markets. Bitcoin soon breaks $30K resistance. OK. I’m downloading the McDonald’s App.
  1. Yesterday: McRib's triumphant return. Bitcoin smashes through $100K. I’m never doubting it again.

Now, here’s the thing.

I’d spent 30 hours diving deep into Bitcoin and crypto metrics.

I analyzed on-chain data until my eyes crossed. I tracked exchange flows, studied whale wallets, and saw more red and green lines than a crayon factory.

Sentiment heat maps, social volume indicators, TikTok engagement metrics, Reddit karma coefficients, Twitter ratio derivatives, and even the highly controversial Discord emoji velocity index.

The biggest indicator:

Net inflows into exchanges were SURGING… suggesting a sell-off was imminent.

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After all that…

Bested by a guy with a McDonald’s app.

So What’s Next?

While the McRib correlation makes for an entertaining meme…

The real question: What’s next?

Interestingly, if we examine the patterns that typically emerge after Bitcoin breaks major psychological barriers…

($1,000… $10,000… and $50,000…)

We’re looking at three scenarios here:

  1. Consolidation (60% probability)

- Accumulation phase while market digests gains

- Gradual grind upwards

  1. Continued Momentum (25% probability)

- Quick move to $120K-150K range

- Driven by institutional FOMO

  1. Sharp Correction (15% probability)

- Retrace to $70K-80K range

- Shake out leveraged positions

Chances are, we see a long grind of consolidation.

And that’s GREAT news for altcoins.

Here’s What to Watch

Altcoins typically do well during long periods of Bitcoin consolidation.

BUT there’s a caveat:

You have to be in touch with the prevailing narrative to make the most gains.

Right now, we’re looking at three KEY trends…

  1. “DeFi 2.0” narrative gaining steam: Institutional-grade infrastructure is ready. “Real yield” products on the rise.
  1. Tokenization: In 2025, nobody is going to stop talking about tokenization. It’s going to be on the lips of every cab driver in NYC. The time to get in is now.
  1. AI + Web3 convergence accelerating: Computing power demand soaring while crypto is creating new markets for data, compute, and AI agents.

This is where our eyes are this week.

And it represents one of the biggest opportunities in the markets -- especially now.

Before things get REAL silly.

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