“We’re Doomed, Aren’t We?”
Posted September 19, 2022
The pandemic is over.
We should be celebrating…
After all, the entire world has been through hell and back ever since the lockdowns of doom turned couch potatoes into heroes.
Alas, we have bigger problems now. And there’s a bit too much gloom in the air.
Also, there’s a shared sense that we have a few more horsemen to contend with before we can consider ourselves “out of the woods.”
The Great(er) Reset
You’ve undoubtedly heard of many plans to end the role of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
“These plans go by many names,” says Jim Rickards, “including The Great Reset, Bretton Woods II, and other names suggesting some kind of deep dark conspiracy.”
The reality, says Jim, is far less sinister… “but no less important.”
“The main thing to understand about the role of the dollar in the international monetary system is that there’s a big difference between a reserve currency and a payment currency. A reserve currency refers to the unit of denomination of securities held in reserve by countries. It’s something like your savings account, but it’s controlled by the Treasury or Finance Ministry of each country.”
The reserves aren’t physical currency deposits. Although they’re denominated in dollars or euros, they are securities… not cash.
“That’s key,” says Rickards. “If you don’t have a large liquid government securities market with a good rule of law, then you can’t qualify as a reserve currency.”
One thing the U.S. has going for it: “Currently,” says Jim, “the U.S. Treasury market is the only market big enough to absorb the savings of major trading powers such as China, Japan and Taiwan, so the dollar is the leading reserve currency. That won’t change soon.”
We have historical precedent: the dollar replacing the sterling. This process took from 1914 to 1944 — thirty years! — to complete.
However, a payment currency is a different animal. It’s a way to keep score when we’re talking about imports and exports. Every once in a while, the participating trading partners settle the score with a transfer of assets that can include commodities, dollars, and euros.
Thus, Rickards explains, launching a new payment currency is WAY easier than launching a new reserve currency.
You don’t need a huge securities market.
You just need:
1.] A reliable ledger
2.] Willing participants
And, as you know…
Check! And, Check!
It’s no secret that Russia and China are working on a new system to replace SWIFT, allowing for payments of yuan and rubles.
The recent sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russia — where the U.S. ejected Russia from SWIFT — has only been an accelerant. (The Russian ruble is stronger against the U.S. dollar than it was when sanctions were imposed.)
Russia’s earning over $21 billion per month for its oil and natural gas.
By extension, says Jim, other countries from the BRICS+ and elsewhere would be invited to join into this new system: “The difficulty is that these small steps could accumulate and gather momentum and eventually challenge the dollar as a reserve currency.”
And there you have it.
The End is the Beginning
Are we doomed? Maybe not.
Maybe the end of the current order is just the beginning.
There’s a simple way to prepare… and, no it has NOTHING to do with holding dollars, rubles, yuan (not even dinars!)...
Jim reveals how to prepare right here.