Print the page
Increase font size

The $100 Trillion Stock Market

Chris Cimorelli

Posted November 13, 2024

Chris Cimorelli

Bitcoin has crossed $90,000.

Polymarket is now wagering an 81% chance it hits $100,000 by EOY.

Seriously? Just 81%?

At this pace, I think Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by Friday.

And we’re going to party when it does.

I’m debating between an 18 year old Macallan or a 21 year Hibiki. Don’t know which way I’ll go yet.

But while everyone is piling into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies this week – I’m paying more attention to the OTHER big trade right now.

I mentioned yesterday that this week, the entire crypto sector passed its $3 trillion market cap peak set in November 2021.

But there’s another $3 trillion market that I predict will make many, many new millionaires in 2025.

Possibly more than the rest of the stock market combined.

It’s a relatively tiny, niche corner of the stock market that tends to return the best gains in environments like the one we’re in now.

And oddly enough – between crypto and these tiny stocks I’m talking about – I have found a way that allows you to play the best of both worlds.

A World Without Risk?

Today the U.S. stock market is worth about $60 trillion.

The vast majority of it – more than $50 trillion – is invested in the S&P 500.

And then a tiny portion of it – roughly 5%, or $3 trillion – is in the Russell 2000.

Otherwise known as the small cap stock market.

It contains the smallest 2000 stocks in the Russell 3000 – which serves as the main benchmark for the whole U.S. market.

Yesterday, I shared three reasons why the microcap stocks inside the Russell 2000 are the place to be as we enter a new year in America.

They are the Fed’s rate cuts … the sheer size of the U.S. money supply … and the election aftershock (the fact that stocks usually go up after an election year).

All three of these reasons benefit microcaps more than large caps.

Large caps have dominated the last two years of the bull market. Now that we’re in a risk-on environment, smaller stocks are the place to be because virtually all of the risk has been dissipated.

Recession? The Fed can cut rates to zero.

War? Hamas is already begging for mercy. Putin has made it clear he wants to make a deal with Trump regarding Ukraine. And Xi Jinping knows Trump is too crazy to mess with.

Higher taxes? Nope. Trump wants to cut Americans’ taxes and is willing to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% (from 21%) for companies that produce their goods domestically.

This benefits microcaps especially since smaller companies in the U.S. stock market tend to generate most of their sales domestically in the first place. It’s the larger companies with more global operations that are quickly trying to reshore.

But what about tariffs? Sorry, not an issue. Only 15% of the goods and services consumed in the U.S. are imported. We also have a $800 billion trade deficit. Oh, and there was no increase in inflation because of tariffs in Trump’s first term. I’m sorry, but the whole argument that higher tariffs will cause inflation is complete bogus.

My Big Prediction

Look, there’s obviously always some risk in the stock market.

But it’s difficult to understate the number of bullish catalysts that have just come into play.

And it often takes months, if not years, for these policy shifts to work their way into the economy and stock market.

All of this leads me to a simple conclusion – 2025 might be just as big as the last two years of the bull market combined.

My actual prediction? The U.S. stock market will be worth $100 trillion by America’s 250th birthday, July 4, 2026.

That’s about a 66.6% return from where we are now.

Triple 6’s? A little ominous. But making money is scary.

I know a lot of traders who are shaking in their boots right now.

The stock market is overstretched, they wail and complain.

And sure, small pullbacks will happen. We might even see one this week.

But between the Fed’s rate cuts … Trump promising lower taxes … and the second, incoming wave of the AI boom…

I think the $100 trillion stock market is inevitable.

I haven’t even touched on AI 2.0. But the biggest innovations in AI aren’t happening in Nvidia anymore. They’re happening in the software companies that are using Nvidia’s chips to bring AI to life. And we own a lot of them in Microcap Millionaire,And we own a lot of them in Microcap Millionaire, the microcap service I run with James Altucher.

But let me return to my main point.

If you’re a stock investor, microcaps are the place to be now.

If the S&P 500 hits 10,000, or 66.6%, we’ll probably see the Russell 2000 reach 2-3x better gains, in line with similar microcap booms we’ve seen in the past.

Just a few months ago, microcaps were trading at some of their steepest discounts relative to large caps in decades.

You’d have to go all the way back to the bottom of the dotcom bust to see a better buying opportunity.

That’s how brutal 2022 was for these microcaps.

When the Fed raised rates so quickly, microcaps got crushed and everyone forgot they exist.

Now, we have a chance to buy them before they’re on everyone’s radar.

I am still seeing some microcaps that are trading below value and some that are even trading below cash. We even own some of them in Microcap Millionaire.

Trading below value means a large investor could come in, buy the whole company, and liquidate it for an instant profit without the share price needing to go up at all.

Trading below cash means it’s trading so FAR below book value, the company literally has more cash in the bank than the entire stock is worth.

It’s this weird mispricing effect that really only occurs during moments like now when microcaps are really cheap.

I remember, in October 2020, I found this company called Moxian that specialized in helping small and mid-sized businesses grow their presence online. The stock was trading for $1 and hadn’t really gone up yet – and this was months into the pandemic.

It didn’t take much for me to realize that a company specializing in helping small companies grow their online presence during a pandemic when all these companies were losing foot traffic would probably be a big winner.

And it was. I cashed out in June 2021, eight months later for a 2,143% gain.

So I’ve literally made 1,000%-level returns on these microcaps in the past.

And I’ve noticed a bunch of microcaps that have gone up 1,000% in the last year.

Will we see more microcaps go up 1,000% in 2025? I think it’s almost certain. But time will tell.

More microcap madness tomorrow.

Cocaine Quail vs. DOGE

Posted November 20, 2024

By Chris Campbell

While DOGE works on exposing waste, our team has identified something far more interesting...

My Chat With Jim Rickards

Posted November 19, 2024

By James Altucher

When Jim says something's coming, it's because he's seen it before.

The Crypto Epoch

Posted November 18, 2024

By Chris Campbell

In the end, history won’t remember those who played by the old rules.

Trump’s Manhattan Project

Posted November 15, 2024

By Chris Cimorelli

If we don’t retain our position as the dominant AI superpower, someone else (namely China) will get ahead of us – creating unforeseen consequences we can’t even imagine.

The Melt-Up Begins

Posted November 12, 2024

By Chris Cimorelli

There are 3 reasons why 2025 stands to be as big of a year for the stock market as 2021 was. Once you understand the third reason, you’ll understand why I just had my best week since this time four years ago.

We Are So Back

Posted November 11, 2024

By Chris Cimorelli

I’m interrupting your regularly scheduled program to bring you something completely different